Using Kindergarten Number Sense to Predict Calculation Fluency in Second Grade

TLDR

Early number skills predict later calculation fluency, underscoring their importance for math screening and intervention. In a sample of 198 kindergarteners, block‑entry regression first entered age, reading, memory, verbal and spatial cognition, then added number‑sense measures to predict second‑grade calculation fluency. Number‑sense measures accounted for an additional 26–42 % of variance, with active memory, number knowledge, and especially number combinations being the strongest predictors; a kindergarten screening identified 52 % of future fluency‑difficult children while correctly ruling out 84 % of those who would not struggle.

Abstract

Children's number sense in kindergarten was used to predict their calculation fluency in second grade ( N = 198). Using block entry regression, usual predictors of age, reading, memory, and verbal and spatial cognition were entered in the first block and number sense measures were added in the second block. Number sense measures contributed a significant amount of variance over and above the more general predictors (26%—42%). Uniquely predictive subareas were active memory for numbers, number knowledge, and number combinations, with number combinations standing out as the strongest single predictor. Number sense screening in kindergarten, using “at-risk” versus “not-at-risk” criteria, successfully ruled out 84% of the children who did not go on to have calculation fluency difficulties and positively identified 52% of the children who later showed fluency difficulties. The relation of early number skills to later calculation fluency has important implications for math screening and intervention.