Law and Human Behavior · 1993 · 36 citations · 17 references
LawFamily LawSocial PsychologyDivorce LawLegal ReasoningSociological JurisprudenceDivorceFamily Law SystemsMarital RelationshipsMarriageDivorce DemographyExpectationsFamily Law JudgmentsMarriage AttitudesMarriage DecisionsMarriage IntentionsUnrealistic Optimism
The study surveyed marriage license applicants and law students on their knowledge of divorce statutes, divorce demographics, and expectations for their own marriage. Participants displayed inaccurate knowledge of divorce statutes yet held optimistic views about their own marriage’s longevity and the consequences of divorce, and a family‑law course did not curb this optimism; overall, they approved of current statutes but identified areas for reform, indicating that perceived unfairness and surprise about divorce stem from cognitive biases rather than informational gaps.
Marriage license applicants and law students were surveyed about their knowledge of divorce statutes, knowledge of the demographics of divorce, and expectations for their own marriage. Both groups had largely incorrect perceptions of the legal terms of the marriage contract as embodied in divorce statutes, but they had relatively accurate, if sometimes optimistic, perceptions of both the likelihood and the effects of divorce in the population at large. These same individuals expressed thoroughly idealistic expectations about both the longevity of their own marriages and the consequences should they personally be divorced. Increasing individuals' knowledge of divorce statutes through a course on family law did not diminish this unrealistic optimism. Both groups largely approved of the existing divorce statutes, although there was substantial agreement about a few important respects in which the laws should be changed. These findings suggest that the sense of unfairness and surprise that frequently attend divorce may be a result of systematic cognitive biases rather than of a lack of information about divorce.
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman · 1975 · 23.1K citations
On the psychology of prediction.
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · Psychological Review · 1973 · 6.3K citations
Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
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