Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries
The Journal of Economic Perspectives · 1988 · 623 citations · 23 references
Empirical FinanceMarket DesignExperimental FinanceAsset PricingBehavioral FinanceManagementExperimental EconomicsEconomic AnalysisEconomicsPrediction MarketStock MarketsFinanceMarket EfficiencyFinancial EconomicsParimutuel Betting MarketsRepeated FeedbackBusinessGamblingStock MarketMarket Trend
Wagering markets, unlike stock markets, have a clear termination point for each bet, making them more suitable for testing market efficiency and rationality. This column focuses on racetrack betting and lotto‑type lottery games.
Economists have given great attention to stock markets in their efforts to test the concepts of market efficiency and rationality. Yet wagering markets are, in one key respect, better suited for testing market efficiency and rationality. The advantage of wagering markets is that each asset (bet) has a well-defined termination point at which its value becomes certain. The absence of this property is one of the factors that has made it so difficult to test for rationality in the stock market. Since a stock is infinitely lived, its value today depends both on the present value of future cash flows and on the price someone will pay for the security tomorrow. Indeed, one can argue that wagering markets have a better chance of being efficient because the conditions (quick, repeated feedback) are those which usually facilitate learning. However, empirical research has uncovered several interesting anomalies. While there are numerous types of wagering markets, legal and otherwise, this column will concentrate on racetrack betting and lotto-type lottery games.
23
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · Econometrica · 1979
45.8K citations
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · American Psychologist · 1984
6.4K citations
Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice
Richard H. Thaler · Marketing Science · 1985
Consumer EconomicsBehavioral Decision MakingConsumer Study+20
4.7K citations
Ellen J. Langer · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · 1975
3.7K citations
Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice
Richard H. Thaler · Marketing Science · 2008
Consumer EconomicsBehavioral Decision MakingConsumer Study+18
3.5K citations