Estimating African-American Mortality from Inaccurate Data

Abstract

This paper evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data for estimating African-American mortality over a period of six decades. The authors employ intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generation estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50+ for 1978-1982 in conjunction with estimated growth rates and two model life table systems, the authors estimate black age-specific death rates in 1978-1982. These results suggest that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern of mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range observed in populations with more accurate data.