Estimating the Effects of Cigarette Taxes on Birth Outcomes

Abstract

Employing provincial data from 1979 to 2004 allows us to exploit the significant (45 percent to 60 percent) reduction in excise taxes in Eastern Canada enacted in February 1994 to estimate the impacts of cigarette taxes on birth outcomes. Empirical estimates suggest that an increase in cigarette taxes is significantly associated with lower infant mortalities. However, we also find some evidence of a counter-intuitive positive correlation between taxes and fetal deaths. Overall, conditional on methodology, we find increased lagged per capita health expenditures and the number of physicians to be significantly associated with improvements in birth outcomes.