The long-term prediction of artificial satellite orbits

Abstract

Survey of averaging and multirevolution methods for long-term orbit prediction. A technical approach with the following features is recommended: (1) averaged variation-of-parameter equations, (2) analytical expressions for oblateness and third-body effects, (3) definite integrals for atmospheric drag and lunar effects (for long-period orbits), (4) nonsingular equinoctial element formulation, (5) multistep numerical integration processes, and (6) precise osculating-to-mean element transformation. Several orbital predictions illustrate the contribution of this technical approach to overall accuracy and efficiency. Future development of the analytical averaging method in nonsingular coordinates by automated manipulation of literal series is discussed.