Decreasing trend in the strength of Tropical Easterly Jet during the Asian summer monsoon season and the number of tropical cyclonic systems over Bay of Bengal

Abstract

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during the period 1958–1998 show a positive trend in the 100 hPa zonal wind, decrease in the strength of Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) during the summer monsoon period of June through September. This is confirmed by the Radiosonde data. The number of observed Tropical Cyclonic Systems (TCS) over Bay of Bengal during the same period shows a decreasing trend. There is a strong negative correlation (−0.549 for the period 1958–1998, 41 years, significant at 99.9% level by a two sided student t test) between the strength of TEJ and the number of Bay of Bengal TCS. This result has potential for long‐range prediction of TCS, which is vital for the prediction of monsoon rainfall.