How strong is carbon cycle‐climate feedback under global warming?

Abstract

The behavior of the coupled carbon cycle and physical climate system in a global warming scenario is studied using an Earth system model including the atmosphere, land, ocean, and the carbon cycle embedded in these components. A fully coupled carbon‐climate simulation and several sensitivity runs were conducted for the period of 1860–2100 with prescribed IPCC‐SRES‐A1B emission scenario. Results indicate a positive feedback to global warming from the interactive carbon cycle, with an additional increase of 90 ppmv in the atmospheric CO 2 , and 0.6 degree additional warming, thus confirming recent results from the Hadley Centre and IPSL. However, the changes in various carbon pools are more modest, largely due to the multiple limiting factors constraining terrestrial productivity and carbon loss. The large differences among the three models are manifestations of some of the poorly constrained processes such as the global strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect and the turnover time and rates of soil decomposition.