Strength of stick-slip and creeping subduction megathrusts from heat flow observations

Abstract

Subduction faults, called megathrusts, can generate large and hazardous earthquakes. The mode of slip and seismicity of a megathrust is controlled by the structural complexity of the fault zone. However, the relative strength of a megathrust based on the mode of slip is far from clear. The fault strength affects surface heat flow by frictional heating during slip. We model heat-flow data for a number of subduction zones to determine the fault strength. We find that smooth megathrusts that produce great earthquakes tend to be weaker and therefore dissipate less heat than geometrically rough megathrusts that slip mainly by creeping.