The Rise and Fall of Social Problems: A Public Arenas Model

TLDR

Public attention is a scarce resource, and the model highlights competition and selection in media and other public arenas. The paper develops a model of how social problems rise and fall and proposes empirical tests of its predictions. The model links public arenas through feedback, with growth driven by competition and drama but limited by finite carrying capacities, producing successive waves of problem definitions.

Abstract

This paper develops a model of the process through which social problems rise and fall. Treating public attention as a scarce resource, the model emphasizes competition and selection in the media and other arenas of public discourse. Linkages among public arenas produce feedback that drives the growth of social problems. Growth is constrained by the finite "carrying capacities" of public arenas, by competition, and by the need for sustained drama. The tension between the constraints and forces for growth produces successive waves of problem definitions, as problems and those who promote them compete to enter and to remain on the public agenda. Suggestions for empirical tests of the model are specified.