Publication | Open Access
Where next with global environmental scenarios?
36
Citations
0
References
2008
Year
EngineeringEnvironmental Impact AssessmentSustainable DevelopmentLawClimate PolicyClimate CrisisGlobal Environmental ScenariosEnvironmental PlanningEnvironmental PolicyEnvironmental ManagementPolitical TrendsScenario AnalysisClimate ChangePublic PolicyGeographyEnvironmental TrendEnvironmental DisastersAssessment ProcessesFuture ScenarioGlobal Change ImpactDisaster Risk Reduction
Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change.