Forecasting of ionospheric scintillations of GPS L-band signals over an Indian low latitude station

Abstract

The effect of scintillations on the performance of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver ranges from degradation of positioning accuracy to complete loss of signal lock. Therefore, identification of adverse ionospheric scintillation propagation paths and their avoidance is helpful in maintaining uninterrupted positioning services. Based on Holt-Winter method, analysis is carried out for Hyderabad station (17.44°N, 78.47°E). The considered data corresponds to 9 days (9d) and 27 days (27d) cycles and the results are compared with observed scintillations. The absolute errors are insignificant and the overall results are encouraging in short-term forecasting of the scintillations.