Preliminary Estimates of Fertility Decline in India During the 1970s

Abstract

There are major discrepancies among the available estimates of the extent to which fertility in India declined during the 1970s. The fertility decline implied by 2 national sample surveys conducted in 1972 and 1978 by the Office of the Registrar General is twice that implied by the series of crude birth rates from the Sample Registration System. In view of a wider interest in a better understanding of the demographic changes in India the authors provide alternative estimates of fertility decline during the 1970s. The procedure estimates fertility decline between 1972 and 1978 from estimated changes in the proximate determinants of fertility. The total fertility rate (TFR) between 1972 and 1978 is estimated to have declined by 9 to 15% instead of the observed decline of 22%. The procedure indicates that the TFR in 1972 was about 5.75 births per woman which in conjunction with the above estimate of fertility decline implies that the value of the TFR in 1978 was between 4.90 and 5.24 births per woman. Correspondingly the crude birth rate is estimated to have declined from 40.6 births per 1000 population in 1972 to between 35 and 37 in 1978. The fertility decline that started during the 1960s seems to have continued during the 1970s. (authors) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)