How trustworthy are forecasts of international migration between Poland and the European Union?

Abstract

The paper examines forecasts of international migration between Poland and the EU. It focuses on the analysis and evaluation of the methodology and results of some of these forecasts from a demographic point of view. The first issue considered is the diversity of forms of international mobility of population and its significance for migration forecasting. Then the impact of the difference in definitions of international migrations and differences in migration data arising from them are discussed. An estimate of the maximum net migration from Poland to the European Union based on historic flows is made. This information is used to evaluate the feasibility of selected forecasts of international migration from Poland after entry to the European Union.