Review of recent advances in UK operational hydrometeorology

Abstract

The last 3 years have seen major developments in operational hydrometeorology in the UK. Operational hydrometeorology is largely concerned with real-time flood forecasting. The primary catalyst for development was Sir Michael Pitt's review of the summer 2007 floods. This driver, coupled with ongoing forecasting developments at the Environment Agency and increases in Met Office capability in forecasting rainfall, has allowed the hydrological and meteorological communities to grow closer together, their joint knowledge being united to improve forecast accuracy, lead time and spatial coverage. A key development has been the establishment of the joint Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales, aligned to specific recommendations from the Pitt review, which comprises Met Office and Environment Agency personnel in equal measure. Significant areas of development include urban surface water flooding forecasts, forecasting in ‘rapid response' catchments and longer range forecasting of potential river flooding. Each of these developments requires the use of probabilistic rainfall forecasting. This paper examines these developments, their impact on flood forecasting, the drivers behind them and the benefits they bring in mitigating floods. Looking ahead, the authors put forward their views on the future of hydrometeorology for flood forecasting in the UK.