Near-Term Implications of a Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants in the United States

Abstract

Large numbers of proposed new coal power generators in the United States have been canceled, and some states have prohibited new coal power generators. We examine the effects on the U.S. electric power system of banning the construction of coal-fired electricity generators, which has been proposed as a means to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions. The model simulates load growth, resource planning, and economic dispatch of the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (ISO), Inc., Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and PJM under a ban on new coal generation and uses an economic dispatch model to calculate the resulting changes in dispatch order, CO2 emissions, and fuel use under three near-term (until 2030) future electric power sector scenarios. A national ban on new coal-fired power plants does not lead to CO2 reductions of the scale required under proposed federal legislation such as Lieberman-Warner but would greatly increase the fraction of time when natural gas sets the price of electricity, even with aggressive wind and demand response policies.