An Environmental Decision-Making Tool for Evaluating Ground-Level Ozone-Related Health Effects

Abstract

A computer model called the Ozone Risk Assessment Model (ORAM) was developed to evaluate the health effects caused by ground-level ozone (O3) exposure. ORAM was coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Third-Generation Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Models-3/CMAQ), the state-of-the-art air quality model that predicts O3 concentration and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of O3 precursors (basically, oxides of nitrogen [NOx] and volatile organic compounds) are varied. The principal analyses in ORAM are exposure model performance evaluation, health-effects calculations (expected number of respiratory hospital admissions), economic valuation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through a Monte Carlo simulation. As a demonstration of the system, ORAM was applied to the eastern Tennessee region, and the entire O3 season was simulated for a base case (typical emissions) and three different emission scenarios. The results indicated that a synergism occurs when reductions in NOx emissions from mobile and point sources were applied simultaneously. A 12.9% reduction in asthma hospital admissions is expected when both mobile and point source NOx emissions are reduced (50 and 70%, respectively) versus a 5.8% reduction caused by mobile source and a 3.5% reduction caused by point sources when these emission sources are reduced individually.