Multi‐model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature

Abstract

A first multi‐model estimate of the long timescale potential predictability of precipitation is obtained based on over 8000 years of data from the control simulations of 21 state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models. The analysis also updates earlier estimates of the potential predictability of temperature to provide a consistent estimate for these basic climate parameters. Long timescale potential predictability is found mainly over the oceans at middle to high latitudes and predominantly where the surface is connected to the deeper ocean. Precipitation's modest potential predictability resembles an attenuated version of that for temperature on these timescales. Over land, predictability is largely absent for precipitation and comparatively weak for temperature where it is found over the northern and western parts of northern hemisphere land masses bordering the oceans. Regions exhibiting potential predictability indicate where we may hope to find predictive skill at long timescales and also points indirectly to the processes involved.