Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS)

Abstract

Impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon climate is examined using Hadley Centre’s highresolution regional climate model, PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies). Three simulations from a 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensemble generated using Hadley Center Coupled Model (HadCM3) for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project, are used to drive PRECIS. The PRECIS simulations corresponding to the IPCCSRES A1B emission scenario are carried out for a continuous period of 1961–2098. The model shows reasonable skill in simulating the monsoon climate over India. The climate projections are examined over three time slices, viz. short (2020s, i.e. 2011–2040), medium (2050s, i.e. 2041–2070) and long (2080s, i.e. 2071–2098). The model projections indicate significant warming over India towards the end of the 21st century. The summer monsoon precipitation over India is expected to be 9–16% more in 2080s compared to the baseline (1970s, i.e. 1961–1990) under global warming conditions. Also, the rainy days are projected to be less frequent and more intense over central India.