Time series forecasting via weighted combination of trend and seasonality respectively with linearly declining increments and multiple sine functions

Abstract

In this paper, a novel weighted-combination-of-components (WCC) method Is proposed for modeling and forecasting trend and seasonal time series, and such a method is based on decomposition model which regards the time series as the weighted combination of trend, seasonality and other components. Specifically, the Holt's two-parameter exponential smoothing (HTPES) method is improved (for short, the IHTPES method) to evaluate the trend with linearly declining increments; and the multiple sine functions decomposition (MSFD) method is developed to evaluate the seasonality. Then the weighted combination of the evaluations is obtained to estimate the global time series. Numerical experiment results substantiate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed WCC method in terms of modeling and forecasting time series from the NN3 competition.