Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming

Abstract

Summary This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a farmer in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990‐2000 than in 1980‐1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January‐March mean temperature increased by 1.4°C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each °C warmer. A comparison with historical farming records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago.