Substantial Health And Economic Returns From Delayed Aging May Warrant A New Focus For Medical Research

TLDR

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal, yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. The study aims to compare optimistic disease‑specific scenarios with a hypothetical delayed‑aging scenario to evaluate their effects on longevity, disability, and entitlement program costs. This comparison is performed using the Future Elderly Model, a microsimulation of older Americans’ future health and spending. Delayed aging could add 2.2 years of life expectancy, mostly in good health, and generate an estimated $7.1 trillion economic value over fifty years, but would also increase entitlement outlays; however, raising Medicare and Social Security eligibility ages could offset these costs, making investment in aging research a highly efficient strategy to extend healthy life and improve public health.

Abstract

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model—a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans—we compared optimistic "disease specific" scenarios with a hypothetical "delayed aging" scenario in terms of the scenarios' impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060—mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.