A Two‐Factor Model for Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce: Exploratory Analyses Using 14‐Year Longitudinal Data*

TLDR

The study develops a post hoc model using baseline data to predict how long a marriage will last over 14 years. Using 21 divorcing couples, the authors propose a two‑factor model—unregulated volatile affect predicting shorter marriages and neutral affective style predicting longer marriages—and compare it to a baseline model based on marital satisfaction.

Abstract

This article examines 14‐year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time‐1 data to “predict” the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14‐year period. A two‐factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called “neutral affective style,” and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time‐1 model of ailing marriage in which Time‐1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.