Prediction to Successful Treatment Outcome by Client Characteristics and Retention in Treatment in Adolescent Drug Treatment Programs: A Large-Scale Cross Validation Study

Abstract

NIDA–CODAP file data on adolescent clients admitted to thirty selected outpatient programs were available for calendar years 1979 ( N = 2509) and 1980 ( N = 3094). Two outcome criterion variables were utilized: 1) CODAP's “Reasons for Discharge” classification, and 2) a formula for “Reduction of Drug Use.” School grade, controlled for age, was the only client predictor variable found to account for more than 1 percent of the variance in the “Reasons for Discharge” outcome variable. Marijuana as the primary drug of abuse was the only client variable to account for more than 1 percent (4.4 percent) of the variance in the Reduction in Drug Use. The primary marijuana users showed less reduction in amount of drug use, and were less often considered to have completed the course of treatment. Time in treatment accounted for 1.6 percent in 1979 and 1.3 percent in 1980 of the variance in the “Reduction in Drug Use” criterion.