DECLINING MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA*

TLDR

In western North America, snow stores winter precipitation and transfers it to the typically dry summers. The study examines climate‑driven fluctuations and trends in spring snowpack from 1916–2002 using manual and telemetered measurements corroborated by a physically based hydrologic model. Analysis shows that spring snowpack has declined across much of the mountain West, especially since midcentury, with the largest decreases in regions of mild winter temperatures and greater losses at lower elevations, indicating that climate change—not land‑use changes—is the dominant driver of these trends.

Abstract

In western North America, snow provides crucial storage of winter precipitation, effectively transferring water from the relatively wet winter season to the typically dry summers. Manual and telemetered measurements of spring snowpack, corroborated by a physically based hydrologic model, are examined here for climate-driven fluctuations and trends during the period of 1916–2002. Much of the mountain West has experienced declines in spring snowpack, especially since midcentury, despite increases in winter precipitation in many places. Analysis and modeling show that climatic trends are the dominant factor, not changes in land use, forest canopy, or other factors. The largest decreases have occurred where winter temperatures are mild, especially in the Cascade Mountains and northern California. In most mountain ranges, relative declines grow from minimal at ridgetop to substantial at snow line. Taken together, these results emphasize that the West's snow resources are already declining as earth's climate warms.