Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations

Abstract

We investigate the transient response of severe‐thunderstorm forcing to the time‐varying greenhouse gas concentrations associated with the A1B emissions scenario. Using a five‐member ensemble of global climate model experiments, we find a positive trend in such forcing within the United States, over the period 1950–2099. The rate of increase varies by geographic region, depending on (i) low‐level water vapor availability and transport, and (ii) the frequency of synoptic‐scale cyclones during the warm season. Our results indicate that deceleration of the greenhouse gas emissions trajectory would likely result in slower increases in severe thunderstorm forcing.