Forecasting the polar motions of the deformable Earth

Abstract

A mathematical model for the complicated phenomenon of the polar oscillations of the deformable Earth that adequately describes the astrometric data of the International Earth Rotation Service is constructed using celestial mechanics and asymptotic techniques. This model enables us to describe the observed phenomena (free nutation, annual oscillations, and trends) simply and with statistical reliability. The model contains a small number of parameters determined via a least-squares solution using well-known basis functions. Interpolations of the polar trajectory for intervals of 6 and 12 yrs and forecasts for 1–3 yrs are obtained using the theoretical curve. The calculated coordinates demonstrate a higher accuracy than those known earlier.