Demand Forecasting for Irrigation Water Distribution Systems

Abstract

One of the main problems in the management of large water supply and distribution systems is the forecasting of daily demand in order to schedule pumping effort and minimize costs. This paper examines methodologies for consumer demand modeling and prediction in a real-time environment for an on-demand irrigation water distribution system. Approaches based on linear multiple regression, univariate time series models (exponential smoothing and ARIMA models), and computational neural networks (CNNs) are developed to predict the total daily volume demand. A set of templates is then applied to the daily demand to produce the diurnal demand profile. The models are established using actual data from an irrigation water distribution system in southern Spain. The input variables used in various CNN and multiple regression models are (1) water demands from previous days; (2) climatic data from previous days (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration); (3) crop data (surfaces and crop coefficients); and (4) water demands and climatic and crop data. In CNN models, the training method used is a standard back-propagation variation known as extended-delta-bar-delta. Different neural architectures are compared whose learning is carried out by controlling several threshold determination coefficients. The nonlinear CNN model approach is shown to provide a better prediction of daily water demand than linear multiple regression and univariate time series analysis. The best results were obtained when water demand and maximum temperature variables from the two previous days were used as input data.