The Front-Runner, Contenders, and Also-Rans

Abstract

This study reports the effects of viewing a Republican primary debate that took place December 2, 1999, in Manchester, New Hampshire, and includes six candidates: Gary Bauer, George Bush, Steve Forbes, Orrin Hatch, John McCain, and Alan Keyes. After viewing the debate, respondents' perceptions of candidate image changed, and candidate vote preferences also changed. Our results suggest that primary debate participation may have negative consequences for a campaign front-runner. This study also measures reactions to candidates' specific issue appeals and finds that appeals made by the large field of primary candidates vying for public attention—whom we label also-rans—tend to be evaluated more negatively by debate viewers than those appeals made by the better-known candidates. Finally, candidates who adopt the often employed debate strategy of attacking the front-runner might find that such a strategy is more successful if employed in moderation.