Cultural variations in optimistic and pessimistic bias: Do Easterners really expect the worst and Westerners really expect the best when predicting future life events?

Abstract

The authors compared levels of optimistic and pessimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative life events between European Americans and Japanese. Study 1 showed that European Americans compared with Japanese were more likely to predict positive events to occur to self than to others. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of negative events. Study 2 replicated these cultural differences. Furthermore, positive associations emerged between predictions and occurrence of life events 2 months later for both European Americans and Japanese. Across both studies, results of within-groups analyses indicated that both groups expected negative events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (optimistic bias). In addition, Japanese expected positive events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (pessimistic bias). However, European Americans failed to show the expected optimistic bias for positive events.