The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction

K. Beven, Andrew Binley

Hydrological Processes

Hydrological PredictionEngineeringHydrologic EngineeringUncertainty ModelingEarth Science +23

AN ESSAY TOWARDS SOLVING A PROBLEM IN THE DOCTRINE OF CHANCES

BAYES

Biometrika

Bayesian StatisticBayesian Decision TheoryBehavioral Decision MakingLawMr Search +19

LII. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London

Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology

Keith Beven, Jim Freer

Journal of Hydrology

Complex Environmental SystemsEngineeringUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty EstimationPhysical Modeling +10

Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

Warren E. Walker, Poul Harremoës, Joris I. Rotmans, +4

Integrated Assessment

Critical UncertaintiesEngineeringUncertainty MatrixRisk AnalysisUncertainty Formalism +26

A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters

Jasper A. Vrugt, Hoshin V. Gupta, Willem Bouten, +1

Water Resources Research

EngineeringMonte Carlo MethodsMarkov Chain Monte CarloEvolutionary Multimodal OptimizationStochastic Simulation +20

Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Jasper A. Vrugt, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Martyn Clark, +2

Water Resources Research

Hydrologic ModelingHydrological PredictionEngineeringHydrologic EngineeringUncertain Data +21

Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions

Paul H. Garthwaite, Joseph B. Kadane, Anthony O’Hagan

Journal of the American Statistical Association

Monte Carlo assessment of parameter uncertainty in conceptual catchment models: the Metropolis algorithm

George Kuczera, Éric Parent

Journal of Hydrology

EngineeringWater ResourcesCatchment ScaleUncertainty QuantificationSpatial Uncertainty +9

Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe Basin in China

Jing Yang, Peter Reichert, Karim C. Abbaspour, +2

Journal of Hydrology

HydrogeologyEnvironmental MonitoringEngineeringWater ResourcesUncertainty Analysis Techniques +11