Sticking with Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Political Attitudes

TLDR

Cognitive dissonance theory predicts that voting for a candidate increases future favorable opinions of that candidate. The study compares presidential opinion ratings of voting‑age eligibles and ineligibles two years after the election. The analysis shows that eligibles exhibit two to three times greater polarization than ineligibles, and that polarization is smaller for senators elected during high‑turnout presidential campaign years compared to non‑presidential campaign years. JEL classification: D72.

Abstract

Cognitive dissonance theory predicts that the act of voting for a candidate leads to a more favorable opinion of the candidate in the future. We find support for the empirical relevance of cognitive dissonance to political attitudes. We examine the presidential opinion ratings of voting-age eligibles and ineligibles two years after the president's election. We find that eligibles show two to three times greater polarization of opinions than comparable ineligibles. We find smaller effects when we compare polarization in opinions of senators elected during high turnout presidential campaign years with senators elected during nonpresidential campaign years. (JEL D72)