The Study of Natural Disasters, 1977–97: Some Reflections on a Changing Field of Knowledge

TLDR

The paper reflects on two decades of research in natural disasters, noting that vulnerability is a key determinant of disaster outcomes. The study aims to clarify the definitions of natural disaster and vulnerability, an unresolved issue. The authors review major disasters from 1977–97, examine field developments—including vulnerability trends, IT advances, and mitigation dilemmas—and assess unmet expectations and lost assets. They find that academic over‑specialisation dominates theory, technology transfer is inadequate, and disaster analysis must become more sophisticated, multidisciplinary, and context‑aware.

Abstract

As part of a series of papers to mark the 21st year of publication of Disasters, it is opportune to consider some of the changes that have occurred in the field it has covered so diligently for the last two decades. The paper begins with a brief review of the major natural disasters during this period and assesses their impact. It then considers the problem of how to define two key concepts: natural disaster and vulnerability, which remains an open question. The latter is one of the key determinants of the former. Next comes a review of what has occurred in the disasters field since the journal began publication, including some notes on the rise in vulnerability, the information technology revolution and the dilemmas of hazard mitigation. The following two sections assess, respectively, what hoped‐for developments did not occur during the period studied and what assets were lost in the name of progress. For example, on the theoretical front, academic over‐specialisation has predominated, while on the practical side there has been insufficient transfer of technology to where it is needed. The paper concludes that analyses of disaster need to become more sophisticated and multi‐disciplinary and must take account of several forms of context within which developments take place.