A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

TLDR

Recent surface temperature reconstructions over the past 1,500 years indicate that recent warming is unprecedented, while the early Holocene was warmer, followed by ~0.7 °C cooling to the Little Ice Age, with a ~2 °C North Atlantic shift. The study reconstructs regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years using 73 globally distributed records. Temperature anomalies were derived from these 73 paleoclimate records spanning 11,300 years. Current decade temperatures have not surpassed peak interglacial levels but are warmer than about 75 % of Holocene history, and IPCC 2100 projections exceed the entire Holocene temperature distribution under all plausible emission scenarios.

Abstract

Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.