Will this #hashtag be popular tomorrow?

Abstract

Hashtags are widely used in Twitter to define a shared context for events or topics. In this paper, we aim to predict hashtag popularity in near future (i.e., next day). Given a hashtag that has the potential to be popular in the next day, we construct a hashtag profile using the tweets containing the hashtag, and extract both content and context features for hashtag popularity prediction. We model this prediction problem as a classification problem and evaluate the effectiveness of the extracted features and classification models.