Robust Pareto-optimum routing of ships utilising deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts

Abstract

Sophisticated routing of ships is increasingly recognised as an important contribution to safe, reliable and economical ship operation. The more reliable the weather forecasts and the performance simulation of ships in a seaway become, the better they serve to identify the best possible route in terms of criteria like estimated time of arrival (ETA), fuel consumption (FUEL), safety (of ship, crew, passengers and cargo) and comfort. This establishes a multi-objective, non-linear and constrained optimisation problem in which a suitable compromise has to be found between opposing targets. For its solution, a new optimisation approach to select the most advantageous route on the basis of hydrodynamic simulations and sophisticated weather forecasts is posed. Transfer functions are employed to assess the operating behaviour of a ship in waves. Probabilistic ensemble forecasts are applied to account for the stochastic behaviour of weather. A multi-objective genetic algorithm turns out to be a suitable optimisation method to identify Pareto-optimum routes for a sustainable support of a conscious decision-making process.