Non-linear Arms Race Models

Abstract

Abstract This paper attempts to improve upon the existing family of arms race models derived from the work of Richardson by introducing non-linear and discontinuous functions, and by expand ing the model to include more than two actors. With these improvements, good fits were obtained for the 1870-1914 period and the 1954—1974 periods of great power arms com petition. The best fits were obtained when it was assumed (a) that domestic pressures for arms spending increased with time, (b) that great powers' strategic ambitions grew over time, and (c) that great power military expenditures are influenced by shifting patterns of inter national alignment. It is concluded that the contemporary arms race will be exceedingly difficult to control if established patterns of great power behavior are not altered.