Actual Data Analysis of Alignment Irregularity Growth and its Prediction Model

Abstract

We built two degradation models to estimate alignment irregularity growth on ballasted track. One was a model to evaluate plans, such as track structure improvements or changes to transportation conditions, and the other was to decide on a daily/monthly track maintenance schedule. To confirm the efficiency of each model, we compared the actual and estimated irregularity growth data with a statistical modeling approach. Moreover, we applied the models to the analysis of railway track renewal and optimal tamping scheduling.