Prediction of transmission‐line rating based on thermal overload probability using weather models

Abstract

Abstract This paper explains the concept of dynamic line rating (DLR) and suggests the method to forecast the thermal rating. The weather parameters are modeled corresponding to each transmission line, and thermal overload probability (TOP) is estimated using the predicted weather models and the present DLR value. In particular, a statistical wind speed model is developed using time series with compensation. In the case study, it is confirmed that the predicted TOP should be utilized as the criterion that decides forecast rating (FR) in order to operate the transmission line reasonably. The proposed method would be useful to enhance security and reliability of the transmission line. Moreover, this study could provide a better insight into the system operation and control, especially now a days when deregulation and liberalization of transmission systems are introduced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.