Alleviation of a systematic westerly bias in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models through an orographic gravity wave drag parametrization

TLDR

Systematic westerly biases in northern‑hemisphere wintertime flow of the Meteorological Office 15‑layer operational model and 11‑layer general circulation model are described, and these biases are attributed to a recent emergence of compensation errors in earlier coarser models that underestimated surface drag and horizontal momentum flux from resolved eddies. The study presents evidence that omitting subgrid‑scale orographic gravity wave drag parametrization may explain the systematic westerly biases. The authors develop a parametrization scheme in which surface stress is proportional to near‑surface wind speed, static stability, and subgrid‑scale orography variance; the stress is vertically distributed by accounting for gravity wave effects on static stability and vertical wind shear, using a Richardson‑number‑dependent wave‑breaking formulation and a saturation hypothesis that maintains breaking waves at marginal stability. The parametrization shows wave breaking occurs mainly in the boundary layer and lower stratosphere, and in a simple zonally symmetric model it adjusts thermal wind balance, warming polar regions by adiabatic descent and slowing mean westerlies; in the 11‑layer model it generally improves circulation.

Abstract

Abstract Systematic westerly biases in the northern hemisphere wintertime flow of the Meteorological Office 15‐layer operational model and 11‐layer general circulation model are described. Evidence that the failure to parametrize subgrid‐scale orographic gravity wave drag may account for such biases is presented. This evidence is taken from aircraft studies, surface pressure drag measurements, and studies of the zonally averaged momentum budget. A parametrization scheme is described in which the surface stress is proportional to the near‐surface wind speed and static stability, and to the variance of subgrid‐scale orography. The stress is absorbed in the vertical by considering the influence of such gravity wave activity on static stability and vertical wind shear. A Richardson‐number‐dependent wave breaking formulation is devised, and the vertical stress profile determined by a saturation hypothesis whereby the breaking waves are maintained at marginal stability. It is shown that wave breaking preferentially occurs in the boundary layer and in the lower stratosphere. Results from a simple zonally symmetric model show how the adjustment to thermal wind balance with a wave drag in the stratosphere, warms polar regions by adiabatic descent, and decelerates the mean westerlies in the troposphere. The influence of the parametrization scheme on integrations of the 11‐layer model is described, and found to be generally beneficial. In a discussion of the reasons why this problem has only recently emerged, it is suggested that the satisfactory northern hemisphere winter circulations of previous, coarser general circulation models were due to a compensation implied by underestimating both the surface drag, and the horizontal flux of momentum by explicitly resolved large‐scale eddies.