Stratospheric ozone depletion and the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer in a British population

Abstract

Quantitative estimation of the increased risk of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in British people that may result from depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer is given for the present generation of British people. For adults alive today continuing ozone depletion at current rates is predicted to result in a relatively small additional lifetime risk (< 5%) of NMSC, assuming no changes in climate, time spent outdoors, behaviour or clothing habits. The lifetime risk incurred by today's children, however, is 10%-15% greater than expected in the absence of ozone depletion. However, if the production and use of substances which deplete ozone are reduced, as expected under the current provisions of the Montreal Protocol, the increased lifetime risk of skin cancer is likely to be less than this estimate. These predicted increases in risk, resulting from greater solar ultraviolet exposure, can be offset by adopting changes to behaviour during the summer months which may involve spending less time outdoors, wearing appropriate clothing including wide-brimmed hats, applying topical sunscreens, or a combination of these.