How reliable is the history of chickenpox? Varicella serology among children up to 14 years of age

Abstract

A large proportion of the study group (61%), mainly below 7 years of age, is susceptible to varicella. The positive predictive value of a history of varicella is 87.8%, whereas the negative predictive value of a negative history is 11.4%, which means that there is an 88.6% probability of a negative history being correct. Varicella serology may be reasonable prior to vaccination in children >10 years old with a negative chickenpox history. However, if one excludes cost considerations, it is also reasonable to vaccinate all children, irrespective of serostatus.