Procedures for the analysis of the shakedown of pavements are developed. The approach employed models the elastoplastic behavior of a horizontally‐layered continuum subjected to repeated moving loads, and permits the incremental process of pavement failure to be considered. Following an examination of the effect of materials and geometry upon the shakedown of a half‐space and a two‐layer continuum, the analysis is applied to the results of a comprehensive road test. It is found that pavement shakedown may be both observed and satisfactorily predicted, and further that the life under traffic of weaker pavements may be conveniently estimated. An outline of a possible design approach utilizing the theory concludes the paper.