A critique of the national fertility study

Abstract

Characteristics of general fertility studies are examined and criticized and some alternative procedures are proposed. Most of the criticisms are directed not so much at the way in which the studies have been done but at problems intrinsic to cross-sectional surveys as statistical species or implicit in the complexities of the phenomenon under investigation. The following facets present in all fertility studies are examined: 1) a definition of the universe in light of the purposes to be served by the study; 2) a set of measurement procedures oriented to the dependent variable; 3) inquiry into the intervening variables of fecundability and efficacy; 4) the probing of reproductive intentions; and 5) an attempt at explanation of the findings. The conclusion is reached that the potential of cross-sectional surveys as a procedure for enlarging knowledge of reproductive behavior is near an end and that in the future such surveys should be conducted by the government as a means of providing periodic bench-mark parameters. For academic demographers 3 lines of inquiry deserve priority: 1) establishment of the correct sequences of intentions actions and outcomes in peoples lives by interviewing the same people a series of times; 2) development of the methodology for measurement of group properties which are interdependent with reproductive norms setting the stage for a sociology of reproduction; and 3) abandonment of the multipurpose survey in favor of focused inquiries.