Validation of multiple tools for flat plate photovoltaic modeling against measured data

Abstract

In this validation study, comprehensive analysis is performed on nine photovoltaic systems for which NREL could obtain detailed performance data and specifications, including three utility-scale systems and six commercial-scale systems. Multiple photovoltaic performance modeling tools were used to model these nine systems, and the error of each tool was analyzed compared to quality-controlled measured performance data. This study shows that, excluding identified outliers, all tools achieve annual errors within ±8% and hourly root mean squared errors less than 7% for all systems. Finally, the acceptability of this range of annual error is discussed with regard to irradiance data uncertainty and the use of default loss assumptions, and two avenues are proposed to reduce photovoltaic modeling error.