Potemkin Villages: “The” Medium‐Term Expenditure Framework in Developing Countries

Abstract

By neglecting institutional and capacity considerations, medium‐term expenditure framework (MTEF) introduction has produced in most developing countries elaborate facades of fiscal reform at high transaction costs without improving budgetary outcomes. There have been positive impacts: awareness of the need to look beyond the immediate urgencies; some encouragement of intragovernmental coordination; and initial orientation toward results. Negative impacts have been much heavier: little local ownership; distraction from basic budgeting problems; and severe strain on limited capacity. Unbundling “the” MTEF permits identifying the variant suitable to the specific country and the steps to gradually develop it: unlike a “programmatic MTEF,” a simple “forecasting MTEF” is both feasible and useful.