Some Empirical Tests of Duration-of-Stay Effects in Intraurban Migration

Abstract

Although there have been several empirical tests of the cumulative inertia hypothesis, the more recent theoretical work by Ginsberg (1973), McFarland (1970), and Spilerman (1972b) suggests that whereas these tests may support the existence of duration-of-stay effects they do not prove the existence of cumulative inertia as defined by McGinnis (1968). The tests are replicated and a new group of tests are applied to a data set of individual household moves for the Milwaukee metropolitan region. The new tests attempt to distinguish between the effects of heterogeneity, cumulative inertia, and changes in the rates of mobility. The results emphasize that even when cumulative inertia exists it is a very weak influence on the probability of migrating and that duration of stay since the last move is an inadequate measure of residence history effects.