Probability Analysis of Hydrological Loads for the Design of Flood Control Systems Using Copulas

Abstract

The natural variability of floods cannot be represented appropriately by single design floods. Different hydrological scenarios are needed for sustainable design of flood protection structures such as flood control reservoirs and polders. In this paper a method to estimate the probability of generated hydrological scenarios for the risk analysis of a flood control system is presented. Bivariate probability analyses of different flood variables using copulas are applied to overcome the problem that univariate probability analysis may lead to an over- or underestimation of the hydrological risk. The mesoscale Unstrut river basin in Germany, which consists of two reservoirs located downstream of the main tributaries and flood polders, serves as test case. The spatial distribution of flood events within the river basin is analyzed by the joint probability of the inflow peaks at the two reservoirs. Furthermore, in a second application copulas are used for risk analysis of the individual flood detention structures. This study corroborated that consideration of the flood volume in addition to the flood peak is important for risk-based planning and design.