Reservoir Management Tenets: Why They Matter to Sustainable Supplies

Abstract

The growing global demand for energy and, in particular, crude supplies has brought into focus the twin issues of production sustainability and reliability. The question “What are the constituent elements that determine the sustainability of a set target from a typical field?” resonates with new urgency. A school of thought within the industry views reservoir attributes as the sole controlling factor in the equation. But there might be another element, often taken for granted, that could prove to be the critical link—prudent governance in the form of reservoir management tenets. Stated differently, underachievement of expected production levels or ultimate recoveries may often reflect unintended, although predictable, consequences of management practices unconstrained by due-diligence provisions. The tenets described in this article have played a definitive role in Saudi Aramco’s experience with its fields and may offer a useful platform for discussion. The case here is not to argue that the noted tenets are universally applicable. Instead, the intent is to point to their indispensable business value as a framework for all. What Is Different About Today’s Subsurface Three issues rise above all others in matters involving the subsurface: reserves, cost management, and sustainability and reliability of production. A meaningful discussion of these items, however, calls for a close look at the emerging characteristics of the subsurface and what they portend for tomorrow. There is a confluence of trends, namely increasing complexity of well architectures, higher levels of well intelligence, and the arrival of real-time information in well-placement and field operations. The latter two events, artifacts of global information technology advances, have two predictable consequences for our industry: an exponential increase in availability of real-time data and the heightened expectation of commensurate speed and accuracy in decision making and forecasting. The question that begs to be raised is, “How do we transform the massive volumes of data into intelligent decision making with business value?” Do we need a process or a formalized framework to influence the outcomes emerging from fields in terms of expected ultimate recoveries, costs, and sustainability? In their insightful article “Delusions of Success,” Lovallo and Kahneman argue that business and project failures stem from consequences of flawed decision making and specifically from a lack of an objective perspective (regarding underlying project assumptions). In this context, how can we ensure that the appropriate level of “objective perspective” is injected into field performance forecasts?