Weather and Forecasting · 1987 · 33 citations · 0 references
Natural SciencesEarth SciencesMeteorologyClimatologyTropical MeteorologyWeather ForecastingForecast VerificationTropical ClimatologyTropical Cyclone ForecastingTropical CyclonesTropical Weather PredictionRegional Climate VariabilityStatistical Forecast ModelsStatistical Forecasting ModelsStorm Track AnalysisTropical Cyclone ClimatologyTropical Cyclone Track ForecastingTropical Cyclone Track PredictionTropical Cyclone Tracks
Tropical cyclone track forecast error ranges widely among individual storms, as well as globally. To study its regional variability, structurally identical climatology-and-persistence (CLIPER) track forecast models were constructed for the six major tropical cyclone basins of the world. Developmental errors of the models are compared as forecast difficulty levels (FDLs). The range of FDLs among the basins is >2:1, with the more difficult basins having the more poleward-average storm latitudes.